SOCIO-POLITICAL PERSPECTIVES 2010
SOCIO-POLITICAL PERSPECTIVES 2010 Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Side Effect Of Tibicos
Historians are not used to establish situations, but as activists in the immediate history that we are, we make use of prospective analysis to raise socio-political potential for 2010. The first is that we must recognize that Chavez's popularity remains, although it has suffered from the effects of the crisis in the electricity sector, as well as cases of corruption. Recent studies of polling (not exactly close to Chavez) indicate that its popularity varies even between 40 and 45% (Datanálisis, IVAD, Consultores 21). That means that from the communication point of view the figure of Chavez remains a reference point and the worst of it (the opposition) is that nobody appears to compete with him.
What this means is that contrary to what some characters start saying the opposition, the chances for them to obtain a majority in the legislative elections of 2010 are not very high. What helps us understand why Chavez, despite being full of a few bad candidates, corruption scandals, excess bureaucracy, will be majority in 2010 is the subject of the public agenda and political agenda. In studies of political communication, when it comes to public agenda is to explain the importance or relevance to acquire certain themes or topics for hearings or public. This differs from the political agenda, which is one that seeks to establish the response of political actors are the issues arising from ordinary citizens. What we say is that the opposition's political agenda does not match at any time with the public agenda, despite attempts by the media to match and fit so no glue. For example, some figures from the latest survey provided both Datanálisis and Consultores 21 (November 2009). The big issues for citizens - in order of priority, are: unemployment is the main problem 24%, improve the economy 18.6% Security 18.3%, housing 5.6%, to improve the health system 5.3%, 4.9% solve social problems, education 4.4%, continue with the ideology 3.9%; 3.8% peace, harmony, end corruption 3.1%, ending the revolution 1.5%, to improve relations with other countries 1.2%, 1.1% live in democracy. As you see, are all issues that call on the world political psychology intrapersonal. While this thought the Venezuelan opposition politicians are bent on the issue of the "dictatorship of Chavez," the follies of Chavez, the idea of \u200b\u200b"Cubanize to Venezuela," Chavez, everything revolves around the president. With this, the most important political agenda is not the most important agenda of Venezuelans. And that has its specific political weight, even more it is considered that the issue of the social, economic, equality and social access is the main topic of Chavez.
By this we mean that the gap between the public agenda and policy agenda will cost dear to the opposition to Chavez, despite the errors, waste and mistakes you may commit the government is maintaining the social agenda as the main theme political agenda, matching his speech with almost 82% of voters in the layers D and E which comprise the country's election.
insist, under this scenario we can see three scenarios: 1) the opposition maintains that distancing discourse and if the Chavez get around 120-130 seats in the National Assembly, 2) democratization opposed the election of their candidates and waiving consensus as a way to make up their lists, but still not enough because without a political agenda, in this case Chavez gets between 90 and 110 seats and the opposition between 46 and 75 and the last stage (nearly impossible), is one where the opposition not only democratically elected their candidates, accompanied by a political agenda but also those candidates are not associated with the traditional players (as seen there are many variables to play) then and only then, the opposition can reach 76 to 90 seats putting Chavez in a minority. This latter scenario depends on strict compliance with all the variables, we see very difficult issue given the nature of the political situation. In conclusion, ductal who it hurts, Chavez is here to stay despite their mistakes.
Dr. Juan Eduardo Romero J. Historian
Juane1208@gmail.com
23/12/2009
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