RESULTS IN THE ZULIA: spots in politics
PSUV elections that defined the constitutional amendment must be analyzed in their individual results in Zulia state. To do this we must make clear some points: 1) analyzing the results from the referendum of 2007 to 2009, 2) the electoral processes are dissimilar and 3) should be established for the type of choice and the nature of competition a special comparison between the referendum of 2007.
In analyzing the results from 2007 through 2009, what stands out is as Block A, the No and Yes 624,790 won 472,462, a difference of 13% together. Block B, 626,850 and got no Yes, 467,958. In this case the difference was 15%. This undoubtedly shows that the 1st Block of articles proposed by President Chavez was less than the 2nd block rejection proposed by the deputies in the National Assembly. In the elections of 2008, made on November 23 the candidate of Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) Pablo Pérez de776.372 A total votes and the candidate of the PSUV, Gian Carlo Di Martino reached 658,724, a difference between 8 %. In the referendum of 15 February, received 690,753 votes Yes and NO, triumphed again with 769,742, the difference was between 5.41%. That means several things. The 1st is that Chavez had a recovery in the state between 2007-2009 from slightly over 470,000 votes in almost 700,000, however there is a sign that points to a profound contradiction arising from the fact that despite being an oil state, where there are sectors linked to trade unions mobilized around the president's proposal, is still missing. That indicates that there is an ambiguity in the policy approach to the labor sector and the effectiveness of social policy PDVSA PEQUIVEN and others should be reviewed thoroughly.
When we see the behavior in the so-called electoral corridor, comprising the municipalities with the highest voting population among whom it should be noted - in order from highest to lowest population-to Maracaibo, San Francisco, Cabimas, Lagunillas, Mara, Machiques, Columbus Paez, Jesus Enrique Lossada, Miranda and Rosario de Perija. Those municipalities meet approximately 73% of the actual vote in the region. Looking
some cases the outcome of the vote in individual municipalities is very visible the impact of assumptions about the inefficiency and disorganization of the forces of PSUV Zulia. We say this while recognizing the organizational effort that was experienced in the last elections, but remains inadequate in relation to the capacity of mobilization and organization of UNT.
The Municipality of Maracaibo, in 2007 the average did not get one (Option A + Option B) of 285,000 votes while the Yes hit 169,000. A percentage difference of 25%. In November 2008, the nomination of Paul Perez managed in the municipality votes to 219 256 333 955 Di Martino. At the parish level lost in Bolivar, Cacique Mara, Carraciolo Parra, Cecilio Acosta, Chiquinquirá Coquivacoa, Christ Aranza, Juana de Avila, Manuel Dagnino, Olegario Villalobos, Raul Leoni and Santa Lucia. The PSUV won only Antonio Borjas, Francisco Eugenio Bustamante, Ildefonso Vasquez, Luis Hurtado and Venancio Pulgar. The paradox is that the PSUV profit percentage differences were very low (between 0.5% and 5%) while UNT ranged between 5% and 35%. It is illogical, for parishes and Bolivar, Raul Leoni, Chiquinquirá, Cacique Mara, Cecilio Acosta, Aranza Christ, are composed mostly located in areas D and E strata, where Chavez has traditionally had excellent results. How do you explain this? Without doubt, the result is the consequence of the kind of leadership and organizational capacity deployed in the area. There is no doubt that UNT has managed to win those areas, with a more effective welfare policy that was developed through national agencies. That should be a thorough review, which has not happened so far.
In 2008, the Maracaibo Municipality continued to express such behavior. The proportion remained the same of parishes in which the opposition triumphed in which Chavez won. There were other, some recovery in the number of votes, but remains positive about the strength of UNT. This is deeply contradictory, even more it is considered that the gubernatorial candidate for the PSUV came to meet two terms (8 years) as mayor in the municipality. In 2009, the difference marks the Maracaibo Municipality, for all parishes contributed 355,848 of the 769,000 total that won the NO in Zulia state. Numerically speaking to the state capital city, where they seat agencies and representatives of the National Executive which therefore should be more action Plan Simón Bolívar, generated almost 50% of the votes of resistance to the amendment. Certainly something is wrong in Guatemala. If the PSUV does not advance a policy of ideological formation and revision of your machine, run the risk that the Zulia key to become major political loss. Dr. John E.
Historian
Romero
Juane1208@gmail.com
25/02/2009
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